El Mayor (Baja) quake-triggered in Southern California
Posted by heartland chris on October 28, 2010 at 05:05:20:

I, and probably a few others who post here, thought there would be a M6+ quake in far southern California related to stress changes and triggered slip from the El Major (Baja) M7+ quake. I would have guessed a fairly high probability within 6 months. I think El Mayor was in mid April. It is about the end of October now so has been more than 6 months. I think the largest quake that seems related, outside of the El Mayor rupture, was 5.7 (I am not checking these numbers; I'm trying to recall them). In particular, microseismicity and a little larger was active for the 6 months along the southern part of Elsinore fault. Within a month or so of the quake, microseismicity seems to define cross faults (N-S to NE-SW). The microseismicity on the NEIC USA map has died down, and we are closer to the long-term seismicity (I have been looking at the California earthquake map semi-daily for 22 years now).

Pretty soon, if there is a M6+ or M7+ quake in that region, it will be hard to say it was triggered by El Mayor. These faults are loading by plate motion and they have to go sooner or later.
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: El Mayor (Baja) quake-triggered in Southern California - Skywise  11:26:09 - 10/29/2010  (77696)  (1)
        ● Re: El Mayor (Baja) quake-triggered in Southern California - Todd  18:48:23 - 10/29/2010  (77697)  (1)
           ● Re: El Mayor (Baja) quake-triggered in Southern California - heartland chris  06:31:18 - 10/30/2010  (77698)  (0)
     ● Re: El Mayor (Baja) quake-triggered in Southern California - Canie  22:17:37 - 10/28/2010  (77695)  (0)