Shan and Roger, I remembered Shan's prediction, and the result is interesting, but it missed on date and it missed on location. It missed by about 3 days by date range, and it missed by several degrees on location (even given the 300 km range or whatever it was). Shan's prediction for the March 2005 Sumatra earthquake was actually better, where he missed in the same way on location, but got the date range and presumably the magnitude. But that 2005 prediction was followed by a whole series of additional predictions for great quakes in that and other regions that did not happen.

So, interesting because Shan has not been predicting very much on Earthwaves, but technically a miss on 2 of 3 the 3 parameters, at least as far as the prediction posted on Earthwaves.

On the other hand, Geologist Kerry Sieh probably saved a lot of lives in the Mentawai area by education on subduction earthquakes and tsunamis.
Chris