Re: Real Evaluation
Posted by heartland chris on October 27, 2010 at 06:18:07:

P.S., It is possible that Shan's site (which I don't visit) could indirectly save lives if it contributes to interest in earthquakes and helps people to find out what to do....whether on his site or elsewhere. But, I question whether Shan understands how faults work; accumulating stress, that a fault that just had a magnitude 9 is not going to turn around and haved another M9 for a long time, that parts of that fault system that had 20 m of slip in 2004 are highly unlikely to have 20 m of slip again for decades, but that parts of the rupture area that only had 1 or 2 m of slip might be, for example, capable of a M8.

Again, at 2008 AGU Kerry Sieh thought that the Mentawai gap where this quake just occurred was still very dangerous because the M8+ quakes near there in the previous couple of years had only broken parts of the subduction zone.

Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Real Evaluation - Shan  08:43:06 - 10/27/2010  (77686)  (1)
        ● Re: Real Evaluation - Roger Hunter  10:57:33 - 10/27/2010  (77687)  (1)
           ● Re: Real Evaluation - Shan  11:45:21 - 10/27/2010  (77688)  (0)