Re: Hit or MISS again?
Posted by Roger Hunter on August 14, 2010 at 07:32:49:

Amit;

The chance of getting a hit on a mag 6.5+ quake with a 3 day window is 0.275 so one might reasonably expect that you would get some correct.

The question is not "will you get hits?" but rather "Do you get more hits than chance allows?" and the answer is "No."

The odds on getting a hit with a one day window do not matter here because you use a 3 day window. Putting it another way, you have a 1 in 3 chance that if you get a hit it will be on the predicted day.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Amit Dave  23:00:09 - 8/14/2010  (77468)  (1)
        ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Amit Dave  04:35:42 - 8/15/2010  (77469)  (1)
           ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Roger Hunter  08:21:30 - 8/15/2010  (77470)  (1)
              ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Skywise  08:53:29 - 8/15/2010  (77471)  (1)
                 ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Roger Hunter  11:33:21 - 8/15/2010  (77472)  (1)
                    ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Skywise  16:50:22 - 8/15/2010  (77473)  (1)
                       ● Re: Hit or MISS again? - Roger Hunter  18:43:29 - 8/15/2010  (77474)  (0)