Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010
Posted by PennyB on June 18, 2010 at 12:28:50:

I don't want to rain on anybody's parade here...but the 5.7 aftershock was entirely predictable simply because it followed the larger quake by a few weeks and was in the zone. I would guess that we'll see something more very soon on the Coyote Creek or San Jacinto Faults, simply because the stress seems to have transferred there.

I see many "spikes" on EQF's pages all of the time. I don't claim to understand his methods, but it seems that most of these spikes do not produce anything of significance.

However, as always, I encourage people to keep trying. If somebody comes up with a good method that can predict size, place and reasonable time window for a quake on a recurring and comprehensible basis that beats simple chance, I say go for it. The planet will do what it wants...and right now we are often simply observers.

Ahem...I DID predict the April quake a few hours before it happened. But that was merely a hunch based upon a few 4 plus quakes that had popped up in a previously fairly quiet place. I would not be surprised at all if a four or larger quake occurred near the northern end of that aftershock zone, especially on or near the Coyote Creek Fault. In fact, I predict on of four or larger within the next month within a fifty mile radius. There...stuck my neck out on a hunch!


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 - Glen  00:03:26 - 6/24/2010  (77281)  (0)
     ● How The Forecast Data Charts Work June 20, 2010 - EQF  05:49:28 - 6/20/2010  (77273)  (1)
        ● Better links for those charts - EQF  05:57:32 - 6/20/2010  (77274)  (1)
           ● Another try with the links - EQF  06:03:49 - 6/20/2010  (77275)  (0)
     ● Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 - heartland chris  17:29:30 - 6/18/2010  (77264)  (1)
        ● Re: Earthquake Forecasting Success!!! June 15, 2010 - PennyB  22:51:34 - 6/18/2010  (77266)  (1)
           ● triggered slip far southern California - heartland chris  09:09:21 - 6/19/2010  (77267)  (1)
              ● Re: triggered slip far southern California - heartland chris  09:11:26 - 6/19/2010  (77268)  (2)
                 ● Re: triggered slip far southern California - Skywise  11:29:26 - 6/19/2010  (77270)  (0)
                 ● Re: triggered slip far southern California - PennyB  10:05:02 - 6/19/2010  (77269)  (1)
                    ● old - heartland chris  15:45:48 - 6/19/2010  (77271)  (0)