|
|
|
|
| Earthquake Forecasting Data Update Nov. 6, 2009 |
November 6, 2009 http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html After spending a tremendous amount of time and energy on this during the past year, the Data.html Web page has now been updated with a new format and new data. There is still quite a bit of work to be done to get things working better. But I am hoping that the new format will make it possible to circulate important earthquake forecasting and research data to researchers etc. around the world in an understandable manner.The first chart that can be seen on the Web page contains the most important forecasting data. Basically, if data line peaks are appearing at different longitudes on the upper lines of that chart it means that there might be some significant seismic activity approaching for a fault zone system somewhere along that longitude line. Latitude data are also available. But it would be difficult or impossible to display that type of information with the two dimensional format of the charts. Looking at the data that were stored there on November 5, 2009 it can be seen from the November 1 data line that there were peaks appearing around 121 E. And in fact Taiwan reportedly just had the most powerful earthquake in years at 121 E. Going back further in time, there were chart line peaks that were appearing around 100 E. And on September 30, 2009 at around 100 E there was a destructive earthquake in the Indonesia area that reportedly claimed hundreds of lives. At the moment there are strong line peaks on the chart around 122 W. I presently don’t know what that means. It could be that the program is amplifying ordinary, low intensity U.S. West Coast seismic activity signals because it does not have any stronger signals pointing elsewhere to work with. EM Signal activity has been relatively quiet since all of that recent strong Samoa and Indonesia area earthquake activity ended. For a while there, large numbers of strong EM Signals were being detected almost on a daily basis. As these data are studied, that type of thing should become more understandable. I myself am looking at most of those data for the first time. My computer programs were not advanced enough to easily generate these types of data in the past. Note: That Web page might have already been updated with new data by the time some people have a chance to read this report. FORECASTING PROGRAM ACCURACY One of the most difficult parts of doing earthquake forecasting work is telling if some method is actually working. People can say that they can detect this or that percentage of earthquakes etc. But it is still difficult to evaluate someone’s success rate. Data now available on both that Data.html Web page and on a Year Charts Web page at the same site make it easy to tell if this particular approach to forecasting is working. The Year Charts contain data related to EM Signals that were detected going back to the beginning of 2001. To see if the program was able to detect this or that earthquake, site visitors can use the scroll windows on the Data.html Web page to compare the Year Chart data for different years with earthquake data available at the site. Of they can simply examine the Year Charts and see if there were line peaks at the longitude of the earthquake in question on the charts before the earthquake occurred. Some of the most startling data that I myself have seen so far with the charts pertain to the data line peaks present around 96 E before the catastrophic 2004 Indonesia area earthquake at that longitude that generated a tsunami (tidal wave) that reportedly claimed a quarter of a million lives. The Year Chart data indicate that EM Signals that could have been pointing to the approach of that earthquake might have been generated for a good part of a year before it occurred. The Year Chart data for 2003 also show that EM Signals might have also been pointing to the approach of both of the destructive late December, 2003 earthquakes in the San Francisco, CA area and Bam, Iran. So, site visitors can select an earthquake and see if there are line peaks on one of the Year Charts at the location where it occurred. There are other ways to process the data so that the approach of other earthquakes can be detected. Several are discussed at that Web site. But that line chart peak check is the easiest way at the moment. Now that those data are available I am going to try to keep that Web page updated with the latest information. It does take a lot of time. And I have to do the work during what free time I can find. But as the computer programs that generate the data get more advanced the effort is getting easier. Also now that the data are available I am planning to start discussing them on this bulletin board. It has the best format that I have seen so far for this type of discussion. Efforts are also underway to help get the International Society For Earthquake Precursors Web site a little better organized with detailed lists of earthquake precursors that people can watch for and more detailed discussions of various earthquake forecasting methods. Follow Ups: |
|
|
|
|
