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| Earthquake Forecasting Programs Update September 7, 2009 |
EARTHQUAKE FORECASTING PROGRAMS UPDATE After being out of service for several years while its software was being upgraded, the normal forecasting part of the Etdprog.exe Perl – Gnuplot languages earthquake forecasting computer program is now back running. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Etdprog.html The normal forecasting part of the program is presently processing some 3000 electromagnetic pulse signals (EM Signals) that were detected going back to the beginning of 2001. The charts that are being generated will probably be stored some time this week at the ISEP Web site.They will be highly expanded versions of the following picture file:http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/images/Chart.jpg And they will show what might be expected from this computer program using EM Signal data that I myself have been collecting. If governments around the world were to begin using the program to process "Ear Tone" type electromagnetic pulse data, for example, collected from people in their countries then I believe that it might enable them to predict a good percentage of their significant earthquakes.In my opinion from just quickly looking at those charts as they are being generated, the results can be rather startling. For example, I believe that they show that EM Signals were being generated before that catastrophic May 12, 2008 earthquake in the People’s Republic of China. And that means that the earthquake might have been predicted. It is unfortunate that the program’s software was being updated and it was not operational at that time. The program’s map data can now be displayed with a continents outline background, with a tectonic plates boundaries background, or with a background showing both. Two other forecasting computer programs are also now running. And they and their source code will probably be stored as freeware downloads at the ISEP Web site when efforts to prepare their Web pages documentation are completed. It would be difficult to say when those Web pages will be ready. The first program called Wave Chart draws charts that let people look into the future and determine when there will be high probability times for aftershocks to occur following powerful earthquakes. And it provides information on the forces that are associated with earthquake triggering and EM Signal generation. The types of data that the program generates can be seen on the following Web page: http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/130.html In the past that program was available as an Excel spreadsheet program and also as an experimental TrueBasic language program. The new program was developed as part of an effort by several people including myself using FreeBasic.The second program that was also developed as part of a collaborative effort is a FreeBasic version of the Ring Map program that is presently available in a TrueBasic form. I am planning to contact another researcher who apparently developed some of the theories behind the program regarding copyright matters before the new version is released as freeware. It lets the user enter information regarding a past earthquake. And it then draws a series of rings that show where some type of energy related to the earthquake is supposed to be concentrating around the world. The theory is that earthquakes at those locations might then occur sooner than they would otherwise because their fault zones were destabilized to some extent by that original earthquake related energy. The program then allows the user to specify date and magnitude ranges for earthquakes to display on that map as dots having different sizes and colors. People can then see which of the earthquakes if any fell within those high energy areas. That particular program is so fast and easy to use and understand that it is actually a fun program to run. It is not known by me if the theories behind the program are valid. People will have to try using it and see what results they get. ISEP WEB SITE Although I am not part of the group that is running that Web site I am trying to work with those people to get the following resources developed at the site: --- Lists of earthquake precursors and detailed descriptions of as many of them as possible that government and disaster mitigation officials and researchers around the world could check for when they believe that a significant earthquake might be approaching. Those precursors would include things such as large, fresh cracks in building foundations, abrupt changes in well water and ground water table levels, earthquake clouds, large amounts of static noise on television and radio transmissions, glowing lights on the horizon, unusual behavior by pet, farm, and wild animals, greater numbers of people than normal living in the area complaining about headaches, nausea, vertigo, and general aches and pains. --- Lists of and detailed descriptions of different types of earthquake forecasting technologies. They would include methods based on statistical processes, the detection of electromagnetic pulses, surface temperature changes, earthquake clouds, seismic activity, ground movement, changes in local gravitational fields, and human and animal types of earthquake sensitivity. --- A sophisticated bulletin board or blog that would let earthquake forecasting researchers around the world post reports regarding their efforts and enable them to specify who, if anyone, could post a note in response. Such a selectivity feature is needed to help keep people from getting into the types of arguments that frequently discourage researchers from posting notes to bulletin boards and Internet Newsgroups in the first place. Updates regarding these projects will be posted to both of the EarthWaves bulletin boards, to my Data.html Web page, and probably eventually to the sci.geo.earthquakes Internet Newsgroup. http://www.freewebz.com/eq-forecasting/Data.html These are personal opinions.Follow Ups: ● I want to organize a global competition forecasting earthquakes. - Boyko Iliev 05:42:45 - 9/7/2009 (75850) (2) ● Probably not many people would be interested - EQF 22:52:24 - 9/7/2009 (75865) (0) ● why not start with your own? - John Vidale 09:12:28 - 9/7/2009 (75858) (0) |
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