3.5+ earthquake likely in California Aug 18-20 Most likely on August 19th and most likely to hit in NE California.

Here is my risk accuracy for California July 11th 2009 to August 18th 2009;
Of the 19 earthquakes 3.0 and larger that have occurred;
(Must have been felt by >10 people @ USGS "Did you feel it")

90% to 98% - 12 earthquakes
80% to 89% - 2 earthquakes
70% to 79% - 1 earthquakes
60% to 69% - 1 earthquakes
50% to 59% - 2 earthquakes
40% to 49% - 0 earthquakes
30% to 39% - 0 earthquakes
20% to 29% - 1 earthquakes
10% to 19% - 0 earthquakes

18 earthquakes have occurred when the risk was > 50%.
01 earthquake has occurred when the risk was < 50%.

• California Earthquake Forecasts