Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009
Posted by Roger Hunter on May 14, 2009 at 16:20:02:

Boyko;

I used this list of predictions to evaluate your performance.

I used a day either side of your given date for the time window, a unit of magnitude either side of your given mag. and a 100km radius circle around your given location sot the location area.

Then I compared your predictions to the NEIC database.

There were 62 perfect hits out of 912 predictions. Hits which were aftershocks were not counted and predictions which overlapped in space and time were not allowed.

Probability was determined from the NEIC database from 1974-2007 and used to compute your degree of significance which turned out to be 2.07 standard deviations below chance.

While this is not a comprehensive analysis of all your past predictions it is a large enough sample to be a good estimate of your ability.

In brief, none.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - EQF  05:06:14 - 5/16/2009  (75243)  (2)
        ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Roger Hunter  09:34:24 - 5/16/2009  (75246)  (1)
           ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Roger Hunter  09:48:17 - 5/16/2009  (75247)  (1)
              ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - EQF  12:44:52 - 5/16/2009  (75248)  (0)
        ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  06:49:49 - 5/16/2009  (75245)  (2)
           ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Skywise  18:56:05 - 5/17/2009  (75280)  (1)
              ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  04:39:19 - 5/18/2009  (75293)  (1)
                 ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Skywise  21:58:19 - 5/18/2009  (75304)  (0)
           ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Cathryn   03:41:14 - 5/17/2009  (75260)  (1)
              ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  08:27:51 - 5/17/2009  (75265)  (1)
                 ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Cathryn   14:24:16 - 5/17/2009  (75274)  (1)
                    ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  05:08:49 - 5/18/2009  (75294)  (0)
     ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Skywise  20:33:38 - 5/14/2009  (75242)  (1)
        ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Cathryn   14:26:03 - 5/17/2009  (75275)  (1)
           ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Skywise  18:51:01 - 5/17/2009  (75279)  (0)
     ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  20:02:38 - 5/14/2009  (75240)  (1)
        ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Roger Hunter  20:14:45 - 5/14/2009  (75241)  (1)
           ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Cathryn   03:44:04 - 5/17/2009  (75261)  (1)
              ● Re: (1386) Earthquake Forecasts from January To April 2009 - Roger Hunter  08:47:51 - 5/17/2009  (75266)  (0)