I'm surprised you're going to try to derive the thermal and chemical behavior of the atmosphere from first principles. Although I'm a geoscientist with a PhD from Caltech, I would never take this approach unless there were disagreement among the experts.

I personally find experts, examine their qualifications, check their financial support for bias, then see what are their conclusions.

Do you also try to estimate the stresses in the tides, compare that to the stress release in the earthquakes from seismograms and strain records and the physics of the nucleation process to evaluate tidal earthquake predictions? That's another example of a problem in which one benefits from experts.

If a couple of amateurs cannot explain cause and effect clearly, and all the experts agree, I know who I believe. Especially in the case when every other country in the world, consulting their scientists, has publicly taken action to start to combat global warming.