Hi all;

While pondering the results on JOB's windows it occurred to me that I should be using Jones probability rather than simple time based odds. Check me out on this.

Simple probability says that in 134 years there are 49673 days. There are 3364 syzygies so the windows take up 26912 days which is 54.2% of the time. There were 194 great quakes so the windows should get 105 hits. Since they actually got 121 hits he's significantly better than expected.

Now the Jones probability says that with 194 quakes in 134 years, the odds on an 8 day window getting a hit are .0293 but since there are 25 syzygies per year that's .0293*25 = 0.7325 for the chances of getting a hit each year. So he should get 194*.07325 = 142 hits which means he's significantly worse than chance.

Any comments?

Roger