JOB reexamined
Posted by Roger Hunter on January 31, 2008 at 10:11:57:

Hi all;

I took another look at JOB's windows using my own list of great quakes.
The question was what was responsible for tipping it over into the
significant range. Turns out it wasn't the Kuriles at all but the
perigee shift coupled with the longer timespan being used.


Combined NEIC and ANSS great quakes from 1872 to 2007
197 quakes total 197 quakes total
118 syzygy hits 118 syzygy hits
6 perigee hits perigee shift excluded
124 total hits 118 total hits
probability 0.542 probability 0.542
significance 0.0084 significance 0.0630


As above with Kuriles removed
192 quakes total 192 quakes total
117 syzygy hits 117 syzygy hits
6 perigee hits perigee shift excluded
123 total hits 117 total hits
probability 0.542 probability 0.542
significance 0.0038 significance 0.0359

While this represents a form of data tampering in that it
was included at a later date, it is at least reasonable
on physical grounds, gravity effect from the moon being
a little stronger at such times.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● perigee shift? - John Vidale  12:30:35 - 2/1/2008  (73247)  (1)
        ● Re: perigee shift? - Roger Hunter  14:27:51 - 2/1/2008  (73248)  (1)
           ● seems ridiculous to me - John Vidale  22:38:54 - 2/1/2008  (73253)  (1)
              ● Re: seems ridiculous to me - Roger Hunter  07:19:22 - 2/2/2008  (73255)  (1)
                 ● not sure - John Vidale  07:27:15 - 2/2/2008  (73256)  (1)
                    ● Re: not sure - Roger Hunter  08:36:10 - 2/2/2008  (73257)  (0)
     ● Do the Kuriles "pattern"? - Glen  21:04:48 - 1/31/2008  (73236)  (1)
        ● Re: Do the Kuriles "pattern"? - Roger Hunter  21:15:46 - 1/31/2008  (73238)  (1)
           ● Re: Further tests - Roger Hunter  10:04:38 - 2/1/2008  (73242)  (1)
              ● Re: Further tests/ is total hits correct - SteveS in SF  22:31:18 - 2/1/2008  (73252)  (1)
                 ● Re: Further tests/ is total hits correct - Roger Hunter  07:09:18 - 2/2/2008  (73254)  (0)