I've been at the Southern California Earthquake Center annual meeting. Various interesting things...maybe I'll post more later. There seems to be some agreement that the southernmost San Andreas Fault is overdue...estimates of the last rupture there are about 1680 (year). Lisa Grant Ludwig presented work by Sinan Akciz, her, and others that quakes are much more frequent on the Carizzo segment of the San Andreas than previously thought...and the slip per event is not as big. So, the 1990 working group estimate of 10% chance of a failure in the next 30 years was too low (starting a new estimate starting from today they would come up with a much higher rate. That begs the "wall to wall" question: could a quake starting down by Salton Sea (or San Gorgonio (sp?)) rupture all the way to Cholame? If, as the4 talk title said, Carizzo is locked and loaded, what would stop a rupture?
This is not published work but was presented to 400 people so I think a general mention of it is fair game....I heard about some of this work from Akciz a year ago.
Chris