is "overdue" meaningful?
Posted by John Vidale on September 13, 2007 at 07:31:39:

Has there EVER been an empirical study that has found the time elapsed since the last earthquake to significantly affect the current probability of having the next earthquake?

Nishenko claimed such a thing a few decades back, and it was shot down in flames. Journalists love the concept of overdue faults, but I am unaware of the scientific backing for the claim.

Follow Ups:
     ● empirical - heartland chris  09:29:20 - 9/14/2007  (72620)  (1)
        ● not really an answer - John Vidale  18:48:12 - 9/14/2007  (72621)  (1)
           ● Re: not really an answer - Skywise  21:51:04 - 9/14/2007  (72622)  (1)
              ● which has higher probability: North San Andreas or Coachella? - heartland chris  10:03:04 - 9/15/2007  (72626)  (2)
                 ● Loma Prieta - John Vidale  11:05:45 - 9/15/2007  (72629)  (0)
                 ● not my specialty - John Vidale  10:58:39 - 9/15/2007  (72628)  (1)
                    ● apples and oranges - heartland chris  14:09:30 - 9/15/2007  (72631)  (1)
                       ● not so easy to distinguish - John Vidale  16:52:53 - 9/15/2007  (72634)  (1)
                          ● Re: not so easy to distinguish - heartland chris  08:50:18 - 9/16/2007  (72641)  (1)
                             ● lightning striking twice - John Vidale  14:34:02 - 9/16/2007  (72644)  (1)
                                ● Re: lightning striking twice - heartland chris  16:50:07 - 9/16/2007  (72646)  (1)
                                   ● argument without evidence - John Vidale  17:06:16 - 9/16/2007  (72647)  (0)