Re: no clear pattern
Posted by Roger Hunter on August 21, 2007 at 14:15:38:

John;

I agree that things should be as you said, but the data don't show it.

I went thru the NEIC catalog from 1973-2006 and extracted all 6+ quakes.

Then I compared each quake to those following, looking for a quake over 1000 km away. When I found it, I computed the time interval between them and added one to the tally for that interval. Then start over. Thus no multiple uses, no aftershocks, just time to the next distant quake.

If quakes are unrelated the tally should be a fairly flat bell curve centered on the average time between mag 6+ quakes. I don't know what effect the 1000km requirement should have. But it isn't. It's an exponential, with zero the highest and extending beyond 30 days (where I stopped plotting.)

This says to me there IS such an effect even though there shouldn't be.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● numbers? - John Vidale  18:21:40 - 8/21/2007  (72489)  (1)
        ● Re: numbers? - Roger Hunter  18:55:45 - 8/21/2007  (72490)  (1)
           ● looks like a Poisson process - John Vidale  19:08:38 - 8/21/2007  (72491)  (1)
              ● Re: looks like a Poisson process - Roger Hunter  19:32:02 - 8/21/2007  (72492)  (2)
                 ● there should not be a peak - John Vidale  22:27:25 - 8/21/2007  (72494)  (0)
                 ● Re: looks like a Poisson process - Roger Hunter  21:11:34 - 8/21/2007  (72493)  (2)
                    ● wait a minute - heartland chris  07:01:23 - 8/22/2007  (72497)  (1)
                       ● Re: wait a minute - Roger Hunter  09:09:01 - 8/22/2007  (72498)  (1)
                          ● I may understand it (sort of) now - heartland chris  15:20:59 - 8/22/2007  (72505)  (1)
                             ● exactly (nm) - John Vidale  18:43:01 - 8/22/2007  (72508)  (1)
                                ● Re: exactly (nm) - Roger Hunter  20:04:20 - 8/22/2007  (72509)  (1)
                                   ● check the most anomalous pairs - John Vidale  13:28:03 - 8/23/2007  (72510)  (0)
                    ● Re: looks like a Poisson process - heartland chris  06:56:13 - 8/22/2007  (72496)  (0)
     ●  clear pattern - heartland chris  14:44:38 - 8/21/2007  (72488)  (0)