Re: Prediction registry
Posted by lowell on April 25, 2001 at 20:42:59:

Hi Michael,
As with Roger, I know something about you through your messages on this board.
First, where to register predictions:
Any prediction should be sent to: Lowell Whiteside
It is best if the prediction (or forecast for longer term or broader areas) be sent
by e-mail. Then it is automatically given a date and time of receipt. This permits
any questions about post-diction to be addressed. The e-mail address to send
predictions is:
low@luna.ngdc.noaa.gov
A separate folder is maintained for each predictor. The folder contains
all correspondence (Mail or e-mail) for future reference. These folders are
not opened except by request of the predictor. After a number of predictions
have been made a summary may be made and sent to the predictor. We
do not routinely evaluate predictions as Roger did because this creates friction
with predictors who may not agree with our evaluation methods. Our intent
is merely to act as a database of predictions which have been made.
We request that any prediction be specific. Your board has identified the
main parameters required for a verifiable prediction - time, epicenter, magnitude
or intensity, and boundary parameters for each of these. Look at some
the predictions (like those from Don) on your board - these give a good starting
place.

A prediction can also be made by post. The postmark on the envelop
is considered the date of the prediction, in this case. Mailed predictions can
be sent to:
Dr. Lowell Whiteside
NOAA/NGDC
Department of Commerce
325 Broadway,
Boulder, Colorado, 80303

We generally do not accept forecasts or predictions made by phone since there
is no way to verify these at a later date.

As for why we are interested in predictions from "non-government" types. There
are a host of reasons. First of all, the government is not, for the most part, engaged
in "basic or fundamental research". The job of government is to provide the facilities
and framework so that basic research is done by the people, individually or in
private or academic institutions. As such, we seek to provide those with ideas
or predictions a database where those predictions will not be corrupted or lost.
Although past history of earthquake predictions is not encouraging, there is
every reason to hope that this will change some day, and that when someone
finally does break the code, they will be able to demonstrate that they have done
so. The role of the National Geophysical Data Center is to provide an archive
of all sorts of geophysical data - this is just one set of that data.
It is worthwhile noting that the National Weather Service, whose predictions
are commonplace now did not always exist. In fact, in the early and mid-1900's
there were many private weather forecasting services, many of which did such
a good job, that their ideas and techniques were eventually incorporated into
the services of the National Weather Bureau.
Anyway, government has a responsibility not only to govern, but to listen
to those who are governed. This is the main reason we have an interest in
earthquake forecasting and predictions from whatever the source.


Follow Ups:
     ● Gov - michael  20:56:43 - 4/25/2001  (7096)  (1)
        ● Re: Gov - lowell  23:03:55 - 4/25/2001  (7098)  (2)
           ● Wow! - michael  23:27:12 - 4/25/2001  (7100)  (1)
              ● Re: Wow! - lowell  00:19:03 - 4/26/2001  (7102)  (1)
                 ● Re: Wow! - Canie  08:48:00 - 4/26/2001  (7121)  (0)
           ● Re: Gov - lowell  23:19:31 - 4/25/2001  (7099)  (2)
              ● Re: Gov - Roger Hunter  05:18:55 - 4/26/2001  (7108)  (0)
              ● Re: Gov - michael  23:31:24 - 4/25/2001  (7101)  (1)
                 ● Re: Gov - lowell  00:22:01 - 4/26/2001  (7103)  (3)
                    ● Re: Gov - michael  08:25:12 - 4/26/2001  (7114)  (0)
                    ● Re: Gov - Roger Hunter  07:19:22 - 4/26/2001  (7110)  (1)
                       ● Exactly! NT - michael  08:26:41 - 4/26/2001  (7116)  (0)
                    ● Re: Gov - Don in Hollister  00:52:22 - 4/26/2001  (7104)  (0)