Re: modifying predictions
Posted by Roger Hunter on April 24, 2001 at 09:58:56:

You're missing the point.

Evaluation establishes credibility.

You can't allow someone to change things in the middle of a prediction. Suppose you predict a quake this week, then Saturday you say "Never mind, cancel this" when nothing happens. You're running your score up by dropping out the misses.

Now admittedly, if you have a valid method and get new information (as the weather people do) you must be able to change things, but this is not an evaluation stage. At this point you have already established your accuracy and are now a working predictor.

The question then becomes whether the prediction is true even if changed midstream. That's a different situation.

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: modifying predictions - Dennis  10:27:47 - 4/24/2001  (6970)  (1)
        ● Re: modifying predictions - Roger Hunter  11:21:26 - 4/24/2001  (6972)  (1)
           ● Re: modifying predictions - Dennis  12:35:27 - 4/24/2001  (6976)  (1)
              ● Re: modifying predictions - Roger Hunter  15:16:07 - 4/24/2001  (7005)  (1)
                 ● Re: modifying predictions - Roger Musson  08:13:46 - 4/25/2001  (7024)  (1)
                    ● Re: modifying predictions - Roger Hunter  15:37:09 - 4/25/2001  (7050)  (0)