Hi All. Lets see if I have this right.

I use the data provided by USGS to make my predictions. I see a build up of dilational strain for which I feel could produce a quake up to a 5.5Md. I use a 5 day window with a 30 mile radius. The second day into the window we have a series of quake on of which 5.3Md is the largest. During this time there is no drop in dilational strain, which would indicate there is a possibility of a much stronger quake to come.

For what ever it’s worth I don’t think I would wait for the window to close before posting that there just may very well be a much larger quake on the way.

I don’t make predictions to get points.

To me the point system is a tool. It is to be used to help any individual in refining their predictions, the method, or the tools that they use to make their predictions. If they see something that indicates there could be a larger quake in the offering then they should indicate it.

Your house catches on fire. You try to put out the fire. When do you call the fire department? When the fire started, or after half of the house is on fire?

The fire chief sees there is a possibility of another house catching fire. When does he call the second alarm? Before the next house catches fire, or after it catches fire.