Hi Roger. Most people object to testing, or evaluation because it tends to show how good, or how bad a forecast is. This in turn shows how good, or how bad the person making the forecast is.

I make forecasts, but do not post them. I have a good record for SJB and Parkfield. Come to think of it I also have a good record for the Bay Area. Of course for the Bay Area I haven’t gotten one right yet so in that my record is perfect.

I use USGS data sites and for the most part these sites are good for making quake forecasts. I started using the data about 3 years ago. I have 7 very accurate forecast using the SJB data, but there have also been quakes in this area where nothing was seen on the data before the quake. This was because the quake was on a fault other then the San Andreas, or the Calaveras. All of the quakes were forecasted by using the Echo Valley data at SJB. That monitor is down now and I have been advised that it will be at least another year before it will be brought on line again.

I have made only one forecast for Parkfield, but then again I have only seen strain build up there once. The quake was in the area of Middle Mountain which by the way is a hot spot for microquakes most of which will not be seen on the data site for Middle Mountain. Take Care…Don in creepy town.