Hi Bob,

Just imagine that the monitoring at Parkfield never happened and it wasn't on the web today. I think there would be this emptiness, a void in the ability we have to monitor Parkfield ourselves. Because of it we can look in on the project and attempt to make educated guesses about when we think the next quake is going to roll through.

Keep in mind Parkfield is a prototype earthquake research project designed to issue predictions. This project not only has a dense array of monitoring instruments, but the whole "plan" also included preparedness and the way to provide earthquake warnings to the public.

Though for whatever reason Parkfield has not had the anticipated earthquake in the time frame imagined, it could have gone entirely different, in that instead of no near 5.0's, it could have delivered far more. When they started they had no way to know it was going to be the way it is.

So, let's look at it this way. The instruments are there and there is not much upkeep on them. The scientists can continue to monitor and one day it will happen. There is no reason to shut down this experiment. But if there is a new method available to add to that seismic array, then why not use it. Parkfield has some rare qualities which makes it a good spot on the map, moreso than some other area's.

There is another place that rather mirrors Parkfield and that is Mammoth Lakes. It has monitoring equipment suited to the area. Two summers ago I went on the volcanic tour given by the USGS and it was really impressive. But when you go to Lake Mary and see a forest that is totally dead from C02 emissions, that's when you know you're glad the USGS is actively monitoring. When things got cooking in 1980 and it looked dangerous you know those guys took a lot of heat for letting the residents know its not a safe place. But out of it, another road was built so the residents wouldn't be trapped with no escape route in the future.

In my idealist way I'd like to see a Parkfield II in a new place with a different set up. In this one I would like it to be a school. I think it would be great to start the project and when it was ready for monitoring, seismology students could come and spend a month there and learn and then make their own assessments. Its from bright young minds that haven't been told to often, something is not impossible that new ideas are hatched and new prediction methods are developed.

I think you'll remember the song that says, "just imagine there's no heaven." In the past twenty years geo-sciences have made a tremendous leap forward, but it may stall if funding for projects is not delivered. Everyday scientists are losing their jobs due to lack of funding. Let's suppose in that loss of revenue they had to shut down Mammoth Lakes monitoring. You and I wouldn't have any ability to keep watching and those who live there wouldn't be so well informed about what the future may hold for them.

For many years there haven't been enough professional astronomers searching the skies for comets. Today, most of them are discovered by amateurs with their own equipment. But there are many more out there and today it would not be quite so difficult to miss one on a direct trajectory to Earth. In the future, it could be a comet that strikes the Earth that could bring devastation far worse than what one single large earthquake might do.

Someday it would be of great benefit for you to visit Parkfield. I know you would like it because it's wonderfully quiet. In the morning you awaken to the sound of Woodpeckers hammering away at the trees. Once you've been there and have seen the entirity of the project and its most beneficial location, you might change your mind about how you feel today.

Petra