How the forecasting program works
Posted by EQF on April 07, 2007 at 01:23:08:

Hi again Roger,

Here once again is how the program works. And this proves that it has to be working. It would be physically impossible for it to be “not working.” (My personal opinions)

In overly simplified terms, when an EM signal is detected I note the time. Then I determine the sublunar point at that time. If you draw a line between the center of the Earth and the center of the moon at that time, the sublunar point is the place where the line crosses the surface of the Earth.

Next I have my computer programs look at each of the 40,000 + earthquakes in my database file. That file contains the information on where the sublunar point was when each of them occurred.

Then the program gives each earthquake a rating based on how well its sublunar point agrees with the EM signal sublunar point. And the 100 to 200 earthquakes which have the highest rating are displayed on that chart.

The EM signals can be detected at any time of the day which means that their sublunar points could have any longitude on the surface of the Earth. So if the EM signals were detected simply at random times they would be pointing to earthquakes with the full 360 degree range of longitudes.

Each line on the chart represents that comparison process for some 50 to 200 EM signals detected during the three month time window which ends at the time of the line on the chart. So if the EM signals were being detected at completely random times then on a given line there would be peaks at just about every longitude point.

However, if you look at the Solomon Islands earthquake chart peaks for example, you see that all of the peaks for a dozen or so lines in a row are at about the same longitude and have somewhat similar shapes and heights. If the EM signals were random that would be physically impossible. The peaks on each of the lines would be scattered across the 360 degree longitude range. And they would look dramatically different from one another.

Next, the Solomon Islands chart peaks for example stop shortly after the earthquake occurred. On the chart the stop is not immediate probably because it takes a while for all of the EM signals to move out of those three month time windows. But the peaks do start to disappear pretty fast.

And finally, the sublunar point is just one of the factors in the comparison equation. The most important factor is what I call the “Gravity Point.” It is the location on the surface of the Earth where the combined gravitational pulls of the sun and the moon are strongest. I had to dig my high school and college math and physics books out and go through them when I was trying to remember how to add two force vectors together like that in order to calculate both the Gravity Point latitude and longitude and gravity strength at that location. What a nightmare that was. One problem is that you have to use special equations to avoid situations where the computer programs will try to divide by 0 and then crash.

Other factors involve the longitudes of Solid Earth and ocean tide crests and troughs when the EM signals are detected and when the earthquakes occur. Tidal waves are not symmetrical or even constant in shape. And it was fun (not really) trying to figure out how to use nonsymmetrical tide data like that. But method I devised does produce good results!

PLANS

I regard this as being a mature earthquake forecasting method. It is capable of producing somewhat understandable results on a regular basis. So what I am now considering doing is learning how to generate those charts directly from the Perl program and then learn how to create compiled .exe versions of the program. They will then be made available to researchers around the world through free downloads. I have a Web site available for that which has a very large bandwidth. I can’t do that through my Freewebz.com Web site which will stop running if there are too many downloads.

It is necessary for people to use the program themselves because it contains quite a few variables which can be adjusted. So if you want to focus in on earthquakes occurring at specific longitudes or ones occurring during certain time windows or having certain magnitudes or just ones which were destructive then people will be able to adjust the variables themselves. At my Web site I can display only one set of data at a time. So the equation variables being used have fixed values.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: How the forecasting program works - Roger Hunter  08:06:09 - 4/7/2007  (65443)  (1)
        ● Re: How the forecasting program works - EQF  01:10:45 - 4/8/2007  (65491)  (1)
           ● Another Important Breakthrough April 8, 2007 - EQF  04:49:18 - 4/8/2007  (65504)  (1)
              ● Re: Another Important Breakthrough April 8, 2007 - Roger Hunter  09:07:27 - 4/8/2007  (65513)  (2)
                 ● Re: Another Important Breakthrough April 8, 2007 - EQF  23:23:45 - 4/8/2007  (65538)  (1)
                    ● Re: Another Important Breakthrough April 8, 2007 - Roger Hunter  00:07:42 - 4/9/2007  (65549)  (1)
                       ● Re: Another Important Breakthrough April 8, 2007 - EQF  05:03:43 - 4/9/2007  (65569)  (0)
                 ● Not a total loss - Roger Hunter  18:26:27 - 4/8/2007  (65522)  (0)