Re: Chance
Posted by David on March 21, 2001 at 14:18:16:

Hi Michael. The point is not that I don't want it and I am certainly not upset about it being added to your chart. The fact is that there were several legitimate questions left open and the probability column was still added anyway. I was reading back and trying to see how you guys are going to address predicting aftershocks and all I can see so far is that you won't even use the calculation. You'll just automatically give it no significance. We had some pretty significant aftershocks here in Taiwan. And not all right away either. There were several that killed people.

As for the purpose, after reading the description listed at http://www.idcomm.com/personal/rogerh/ (click on prediction monitoring and evaluation program) it indicates to me what the purpose is.

What was wrong with your chart before? Hit or miss and we can judge for ourselves how useful it was. In the interest of encouraging new predictors and predictions. It would already be bad enough for some people just to have a miss, why take a hit and reduce it. Won't every one come up as less than a 100% hit?



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Chance - michael  17:11:46 - 3/21/2001  (6264)  (1)
        ● Re: Chance - David  23:15:40 - 3/21/2001  (6270)  (1)
           ● Quality - michael  15:08:15 - 3/22/2001  (6289)  (1)
              ● subjectivity - Dennis  15:22:25 - 3/22/2001  (6292)  (0)
     ● Re: Chance - Roger Hunter  15:20:38 - 3/21/2001  (6259)  (1)
        ● Re: Chance - David  02:49:42 - 3/22/2001  (6271)  (0)