Hi David:

Why take a hit and reduce it? Because not all hits are created equal. If you take a look at the status table, one of Mary's hits is almost completely useless as it had a 97.1 chance of occuring by random chance.

Turn than around and look at Martin's sole hit. It had a chance of 1.4% of happening by random chance, a major hit it my books.

Not all hits are created equal and when analyzing predictions, you'd better be aware of that or your wasting your time.

Michael