David, you make some valid points.

First, I used Jim as an example. I consider him to be either a charlatan or deluded. And no, he does not agree with my evaluation or modify his claims.

So what?

He does pinpoint populated areas and his method has been investigated by the government, twice. Once by me and once by the USGS in Menlo Park. Both studies found no significance to his work. It hasn't even slowed him down.

As to predicting an aftershock, you're correct; the probability calculation can't take that into consideration. But *I* can, and would.

As to your lasy, if I was living in an area with that many quakes, I would MOVE!

Roger