Hi Roger. Thanks for responding.

Your reply indicates that the intended purpose of your probability calculation is not effective. The whole debate almost seems to be to keep you busy so your skills are not used for something more useful.

Sorry, I forgot that Jim Berkland does use various methods, some of which offer a much more accurate location. If the government studies had found significance, they would likely have thrown some resources that way. I hope anyway. That would be a valuable use of the probability calculation. To use it to discourage people from making predictions will only increase the time it takes to figure this stuff out. Some of the posts I have seen on this debate indicate that the authors would suggest that no one should make predictions since no one can beat chance.