Noticed that NOAA re-analyzed a July storm off the northeast coast and determined that it was briefly a tropical storm, so the total for 2006 is 10, which is about normal. The hurricanes stayed pretty much out to sea, with only Bermuda getting a hit. There is an area east of Bermuda that has a couple of hurricanes including one Cat 3 (maybe 2) in a short period of time. I this area had been, say, Florida instead of the middle of the Atlantic, the season as far as damage would have been very different. So, it appeared to most that the season was weaker than average....but in fact it was average...although one of the hurricanes only just reached that status and not very long (south of Cuba, I recall), and there were quite a few weak storms. I don't think it has been determined how much of the increased average hurricane activity in the last few years is due to the decadal natural cycles vs man-induced warming. We heard a lot in 2005 about natural cycles, but a couple of papers came out that year or the next one...that the major (severe) hurricanes were much more common and that there was likely a global warming input there. I imagine this needs more time and more studies. But, everyone agrees that if the sea surface temperatures get warmer and/or that warmth extends deep, hurricanes that pass over it will become stronger, everything else being equal (mainly upper level wind shear being low).
Winter starts this evening. No hockey for me so far this year...rink is too far away...I'm deteriorating fast.
Chris

• 10th tropical storm