Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal
Posted by Roger Hunter on February 23, 2001 at 16:52:27:

I disagree.

It is the responsibility of the predictor to state his ranges in advance. You may want to allow a little slack for someone dumb enough to predict an exact location but that's about all.

The question on a prediction is simply yes or no and if yes, how valuable is it based on seismicity.

Your proposal would allow credit for almost anything which happened anywhere after a prediction. For example, a mag. 8 prediction would take as a hit a quake which took place before the prediction was made (negative date range.) And, since 8's are rare, it would score high to boot!

Roger


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal - michael  17:05:36 - 2/23/2001  (5385)  (1)
        ● Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal - Roger Hunter  17:31:24 - 2/23/2001  (5386)  (2)
           ● Postdicting - michael  09:43:24 - 2/24/2001  (5392)  (1)
              ● Re: Postdicting - Roger Hunter  10:51:15 - 2/24/2001  (5396)  (0)
           ● Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita  21:03:46 - 2/23/2001  (5388)  (1)
              ● Limits - michael  09:39:39 - 2/24/2001  (5391)  (1)
                 ● Re: Limits - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita  10:37:20 - 2/24/2001  (5395)  (1)
                    ● Well ??? - michael  17:37:04 - 2/24/2001  (5399)  (0)