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Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal |
I disagree. It is the responsibility of the predictor to state his ranges in advance. You may want to allow a little slack for someone dumb enough to predict an exact location but that's about all. The question on a prediction is simply yes or no and if yes, how valuable is it based on seismicity. Your proposal would allow credit for almost anything which happened anywhere after a prediction. For example, a mag. 8 prediction would take as a hit a quake which took place before the prediction was made (negative date range.) And, since 8's are rare, it would score high to boot! Roger Follow Ups: ● Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal - michael 17:05:36 - 2/23/2001 (5385) (1) ● Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal - Roger Hunter 17:31:24 - 2/23/2001 (5386) (2) ● Postdicting - michael 09:43:24 - 2/24/2001 (5392) (1) ● Re: Postdicting - Roger Hunter 10:51:15 - 2/24/2001 (5396) (0) ● Re: Logarithmic Scoring Proposal - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita 21:03:46 - 2/23/2001 (5388) (1) ● Limits - michael 09:39:39 - 2/24/2001 (5391) (1) ● Re: Limits - Dennis Gentry of Santa Clarita 10:37:20 - 2/24/2001 (5395) (1) ● Well ??? - michael 17:37:04 - 2/24/2001 (5399) (0) |
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