Hi All. Thought I would share some interesting observation that I made concerning the 4.0Ml earthquake near San Juan Bautista on 02/11/2001.

First of all there was no indication of a strain build up for this quake. The Echo Valley site has been down for about nine months now and this would be the site most likely to record any strain build up.

The second thing I noted was the amount acceleration in creep that occurred at the time of the quake. There was very little to almost none giving the indication that there was very little movement at the epicenter of the quake. Give the magnitude of the quake this would be normal.

The third thing that I noted was the acceleration in creep at two locations at Parkfield and is still continuing at present time. These are locations XMM1 and XHSW. This acceleration appears to have started about 6 hours before the SJB quake. At present I don’t feel there is any connection between the two however I reserve the right to be wrong.

The acceleration in creep and the ear tones Petra had last night indicate to me is that there is another earthquake in the offering (date unknown) and will most likely be in the Parkfield area. At present there is no indication of strain build up for the Parkfield area, but this can change in a matter of 18 hours.

This does not rule out a quake at some other location east or west of Parkfield. This could be along the faults Rinconada and Great Valley, or the inactive La Panza fault. The Rinconada is thought to be able to have a quake up to 7.5Ml. The Great Valley a 7.1Ml. As the La Panza is classed as being inactive (where have I heard that before) there is no estimate for it.

Now as I do with all earthquakes I’m going to put my feet up and lean back and wait and see what happens. Take Care…Don in creepy town.