Hi Dennis. As a rule with this kind of acceleration in creep there won’t be any indication of a strain build up or tilt. Both of those indications would be an indication that the fault in that area has locked up. Of course if there were a sudden release in strain then there would be acceleration of creep, but that would be almost immediately after the quake, or during the quake.

Like everything things else things don’t always happen the way one things they should. I have made seven correct forecast for the Hollister/SJB area. All I saw was the build up of dilational stress. There was no acceleration in creep during or after the quakes. Of course they were all in the 3.4Ml to 5.4Ml range. The same for the Parkfield area. I saw one indication of a quake building in the area of Middle Mountain. There was no acceleration of creep associated with that quake. That quake was a 3.Ml.

The problem with the Bay Area data is that I have never really been able to get a consistent pattern for which I can learn from. The same thing applies to the Mammoth Lakes area. What I have learned from the data at SJB and Parkfield doesn’t work for the other locations.

There was a indication in creep for the Bay Area before the Yountville quake, but the creep had been doing that a couple of months before the quake.

About a week ago there was a slight indication of a decrease in tilt, while at the same time there hadn’t been any indication of an increase in tilt. There may be a connection between this, the acceleration in creep and the 3.5Ml quake on 2001/02/01, but as of right now I can’t see it. That doesn’t mean that it’s not there. It’s just that I can’t see it. Take Care…Don in creepy town.