Hi Canie, and all, thank you for the creation of the new prediction format. The new lat long requirements will make confirmation of hits and accuracy more usable by investigators. I expect to see accuract rates drop significantly among posters with tighter location format, however. Posting lats and longs in SOME CASES adds a whole lot of wasted square miles in some forecasts. In example, if I expect an earthquake on an island that is 50 miles long and one mile wide, and the fault runs right up the center of the island, then to post for an earthquake to occur on that 50 square miles by using radius lat long identification means one must take the center point (middle of island) and say 30 miles fron that point in a circle. Suddenly the forecast zone is expanded from 50 square miles surface area to a much larger area. 29 miles of ocean each side of the island has a forecast on it without even being on a fault. Should I need to make a forecast for a geographic area is it alright to post 00x00 and then the region on the Comment board? There is a difference between a prediction and a forecast as well. Prediction implies an earthquake will definitely strike a precise area in a certain time and magnitude whereas forecasting implies a general heightened risk for a looser area and that the risk is for some reason higher but not necessarily a given that the event will occur. Perhaps there could be a second slot for forecasts? Also, I think there could be some benefit to seperating western North America from the rest of the world as predicting large earthquakes worldwide is much more accurate than the predction of the much rarer N. American events. By definition: PREDICTION-specification of time, place, magnitude and probability of an anticipated event.
FORECASTING-general statement of future possibility.
An example of a forecast is that a region will experience a 7+ mag earthquake in the next 30 years @ 50% probability.
An example of a Prediction is printed above.
In the past 3 decades+, Japan has spent 1.4 billion on prediction research! They have yet to forecast one damaging earthquake successfully! Twelve million there turned out for survival and and anti disaster drills to mark the anniversary of Japan's biggest quake in modern times, the 1923 temblor which killed 143,000. After failing to predict the killer KOBE quake, their budget for prediction research has been drastically reduced. One of the greatest challenges to prediction is forming forecasts that the public considers useful. This can can succeed of fail in several ways. First, the forecast must be in terms the public can understand. Second is HOW CREDIBLE? This is where an accurate documented prediction record comes in. Predictions must be accurate, checkable, and carry the credibility of past successes to be publicly or scientifically useful. No one would believe my forecasts if I didn't show them many examples of having made accurate forecasts for the same and other regions in the past. This makes the role of the prediction assesor a very important one. Criticisms that are made of forecasts can quickly destroy credibility, so must be made with care and accurate knowledge. A forecast (as defined above) can never be incorrect, even when the event fails to happen. A prediction can fail, but not a forecast. Thanks to all for your assistance and support, criticisms and encouragements. We have a great thing going here! Wishing you continued success with EARTHWAVES OUR CHANGING PLANET. ...mb.