I posted here in October a "pseudo" prediction that there would be a magnitude 3.3 or larger earthquake in California for each week starting October 20. My method of evaluating predictions estimated that I would have a least one hit 92% of the weeks. The experiment has been going on for 8 weeks and there has been at least one hit every week so far. Does this mean I can predict earthquakes? Of course not. However, some folks think that earthquake predictions can be evaluated by computing what percentage of predictions have a hit. No, you have to determine what the liklihood of a hit by chance is by looking at past catalogs.

Here are the events which fit in my window:

2000/10/20 14:02:49.0 36.5900N 116.2600W 4.2 3.4
2000/10/22 14:54:11.0 35.4720N 116.4380W 9.3 3.6
2000/10/22 14:54:25.0 35.4720N 116.4490W 6.0 3.6
2000/10/25 16:48:21.0 40.4200N 125.1900W 1.2 3.5
2000/10/25 16:48:21.0 40.4200N 125.1900W 1.2 3.9
2000/10/30 23:37:20.0 34.9700N 120.7300W 30.0 3.3
2000/11/04 17:49:13.0 39.4100N 123.0800W 8.0 3.4
2000/11/08 19:05:12.0 38.8400N 122.7900W 3.0 3.4
2000/11/13 07:05:33.0 37.4100N 118.6600W 12.0 3.6
2000/11/15 20:17:24.0 39.9680N 120.7090W 5.0 3.6
2000/11/16 11:02:13.0 40.4300N 125.1700W 1.0 3.3
2000/11/16 13:06:53.0 40.4900N 119.4700W 3.0 3.8
2000/11/16 17:01:59.0 39.7430N 122.7700W 5.0 3.5
2000/11/19 07:36:43.0 40.4700N 125.4200W 3.0 3.5
2000/11/19 12:54:50.0 40.4900N 119.5150W 5.0 4.3
2000/11/21 20:39:41.0 36.4850N 116.2130W 7.0 3.4
2000/11/23 22:58:02.0 35.8270N 121.3120W 3.0 3.3
2000/11/24 00:40:12.0 40.4490N 119.6680W 8.0 3.8
2000/11/25 17:38:20.0 39.6760N 119.2930W 9.0 3.5
2000/12/02 08:28:07.0 34.2650N 116.7760W 3.0 4.1
2000/12/02 15:34:15.0 39.3570N 120.4320W 10.0 4.9
2000/12/05 22:54:54.0 36.7800N 121.3800W 9.0 3.9
2000/12/08 07:41:11.0 38.7800N 122.7700W 4.0 4.4
2000/12/10 12:35:41.0 40.3260N 120.4340W 5.0 3.5
2000/12/11 18:04:27.0 34.0090N 116.6980W 12.0 3.4
2000/12/12 22:08:11.0 36.8700N 121.6000W 7.0 3.3
2000/12/14 18:58:21.0 37.3500N 121.7100W 7.8 3.5
2000/12/20 01:29:56.0 37.1500N 118.0700W 0.1 3.6
2000/12/20 22:55:51.0 40.9900N 121.6900W 13.0 3.8
2000/12/20 22:59:38.0 40.9900N 121.6900W 14.2 3.8
2000/12/20 23:22:54.0 40.9900N 121.7000W 11.2 4.3
2000/12/20 23:39:14.0 40.9900N 121.7000W 19.3 4.6