some comments
Posted by John Vidale on September 22, 2006 at 08:06:32:

First, the magnitude of the New Madrid earthquakes is continually being revised downward. Now, we think the biggest of them was in the mid-7 range, so it is not so puzzling that the fault lengths are so short. Mike is right, the midwest rock is probably more intact than on the west coast, but this shows up more in less attenuation of the waves in the East than a difference in the magnitude-length ratio.

Second, there is a debate in the community between those who think faults are dominated by a characteristic behavior (every big quake on some section is an 8, for example) and those who simply expect a Gutenberg-Richter distribution (a mix of all magnitudes, with more little events, of course).

Third, faults are not simply divided into segments. Evidence points to large, multi-segment earthquakes causing more slip on a given segment than do single-segment earthquakes, although evidence is slim.

Fourth, slip is observed to be highly irregular across a fault in a large earthquake. So 1906, even if it broke the same fault as Loma Prieta, which is not certain, may not have had much slip there. Last time I checked, the geodetic (Marshall and Stein?) model for 1906 looked quite different than the seismic model (Wald?), so we don't know the distribution well for a quake that old and ill-recorded.

Last, the comparison between the shaking of a local M7 and a more distant M8 needs to mention frequency content. The high-frequency shaking may be greater for the local M7, but the long-period shaking, the kind that damages large building most, would be almost invariably greater for the M8 event.


Follow Ups:
     ● Re: some comments - Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande  09:03:44 - 9/22/2006  (40697)  (2)
        ● it was mostly accurate - John Vidale  17:13:21 - 9/22/2006  (40702)  (0)
        ● Re: some comments - chris in suburbia  10:24:53 - 9/22/2006  (40698)  (2)
           ● Re: some comments - Cathryn  17:30:03 - 9/24/2006  (40836)  (2)
              ● Re: some comments - Canie  21:07:17 - 9/25/2006  (40950)  (2)
                 ● maybe here? - John Vidale  21:45:17 - 9/25/2006  (40954)  (1)
                    ● Re: maybe here? - Canie  23:40:15 - 9/25/2006  (40961)  (0)
                 ● Re: some comments - Canie  21:17:33 - 9/25/2006  (40952)  (1)
                    ● Re: The Internet (and by proxy usenet, www, email, and chat) - Roger Hunter  22:13:08 - 9/25/2006  (40958)  (1)
                       ● Re: The Internet (and by proxy usenet, www, email, and chat) - Canie  23:41:47 - 9/25/2006  (40962)  (1)
                          ● Re: The Internet (and by proxy usenet, www, email, and chat) - Roger Hunter  08:21:11 - 9/26/2006  (40965)  (0)
              ● magnitude estimation - John Vidale  20:56:17 - 9/24/2006  (40840)  (1)
                 ● Re: magnitude estimation - Cathryn  22:20:24 - 9/24/2006  (40842)  (0)
           ● Re:Thanks for all the comments - Jane  17:21:36 - 9/24/2006  (40835)  (0)