Re: '4,7 NoCA & Bay Area
Posted by Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande on June 17, 2006 at 10:14:47:

Cal -my methodology has been made clear in my previous posts. Nothing you have said (including your references to the media, perhaps especially those) refutes it. I have shown mathematically (very simple, no tricks arithmetic, really) that the hypocenter (and thus the epicenter) of the earthquake occurred south of a line drawn through the mid-latitude of the state of California. By definition, then, the earthquake occurred in either Central California, or Southern California, depending on whether you divide the state into halves or thirds. Either way, it did NOT occur in Northern California. If you have any apecific quarrel with the actual argument, please bring it to my attention.

In any event, it strains credulity to believe that this middling quake was anticipated by animals at your distant location. Even the Intensity map you provided shows that there were no felt effects anywhere near you. But I understand your persistence. Absent this being the quake you predicted, there is none to fulfill the prediction. And then the anomalous animal behavior has to be ascribed to non-seismic, unrelated, local (and likely trivial) conditions. As virtually all anomalous animal behavior is. Those that believe that animal behavior can predict earthquakes (and I do admit to some small evidence that animals can become aware of some impending quakes - apparently due to non-mysterious effects such as precursory LOCAL microseismicity, and possibly gas emmissions) tend to forget all the behaviors they witness that are not followed by quakes, but remember keenly those that are. It's called the Full Moon Effect.

This board, and others that I have followed, have, over a period of many years, featured numerous threads regarding odd animal behavior, and all those threads are subsequently forgotten when the anticipated quake does not occur. The only exceptions are the cases where someone stretches the facts to the breaking point in order to correlate some minor and distant quake with the supposedly predictive behavior. The current interest in animal behavior is a case in point, as time will show. Had the minor quake near Hollister not occurred, neither would this discussion have occurred.

Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande, CA



Follow Ups:
     ● Re: '4,7 NoCA & Bay Area - Cal  15:00:00 - 6/17/2006  (38418)  (0)