Hi Kiddo. I have to wonder if the gentleman has a hidden agenda as he left out some keys parts to KBs prediction. Take Care…Don in creepy town

“Keilis-Borok's multinational team includes experts in pattern recognition, geodynamics, seismology, chaos theory, statistical physics and public safety, according to UCLA. They use algorithms to detect patterns in small earthquakes that occur every day. They're looking for quakes that are more frequent in a given region, more clustered in time and space, or simultaneous, as well as measuring the ratio of medium-sized earthquakes to smaller ones.”

“The California Earthquake Prediction Evaluation Council (CEPEC) analyzed the team's work in February and ``while they concluded it was worthwhile research, they could neither validate or invalidate the prediction,'' Reichle said.”

“The prediction is that there is a 50 percent chance of a magnitude 6.4 or greater earthquake on or before Sept. 5 within a 12,440-square-mile area of Southern California that includes portions of the eastern Mojave Desert, Coachella Valley, Imperial Valley and eastern San Diego County. Much of the area is unpopulated, and a major quake hits the area about every 10 years.”

The following in from the CEPEC.

The Keilis-Borok methodology appears to be a legitimate approach in earthquake prediction research. However, the physical basis for the prediction put forward by the authors has not been substantiated, and they have not yet issued enough predictions to allow a statistical validation of their forecasting methodology. Continued research along these lines may lead to useful forecasts. Although the analysis has matured to the point of generating provocative scientific results, the absence of an established track record and the sensitivity of the results to input assumptions leaves CEPEC uncertain of the robustness of the prediction made using patterns of small earthquakes.

This uncertainty along with the large geographic area included in the prediction (about 12,400 sq. mi.) leads CEPEC to conclude that the results do not at this time warrant any special public policy actions in California. Nevertheless, the southern California prediction, as well as the recent San Simeon earthquake, should serve to remind all Californians of the significant seismic hazards throughout the state. Regardless of the validity of the prediction, CEPEC recommends that all jurisdictions review and periodically exercise existing preparedness and response plans. Likewise, citizens of California who live in areas of high seismic hazard should make sure they have undertaken all general preparedness actions recommended by emergency management organizations and the Red Cross.

Prediction

CEPEC Report