Re: details?
Posted by Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande on February 23, 2006 at 05:33:19:

John V. correctly noted: "If you don't say whether your prediction is for within 1 km or 1000 km of the coastline, it will be difficult to judge whether an earthquake is or out of your prediction area."

But, even more important, absent the missing information, it becomes impossible to determine the prediction's statistical chance of success. The default position has to be the largest area that could conceivably be involved. A "hit", then, would be singularly unimpressive.

Mike Williams in Arroyo Grande, CA


Follow Ups:
     ● Professional Evaluators??? - Petra  06:02:35 - 2/23/2006  (34165)  (1)
        ● Re: Professional Evaluators??? - Russell  10:00:54 - 2/23/2006  (34170)  (1)
           ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - marc / berkeley  12:31:21 - 2/23/2006  (34197)  (1)
              ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - Don in Hollister  13:05:44 - 2/23/2006  (34200)  (1)
                 ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - Roger Hunter  20:47:12 - 2/23/2006  (34204)  (1)
                    ● Re: um, I dunno about that... - Don in Hollister  21:00:21 - 2/23/2006  (34205)  (0)