Petra,

Earthquakes cannot be predicted. I knew that coming in last year, but I HAD to give it a fling. Projection is a different concept. I am watching the Imperial Valley for a large quake soon. In geologic time, no more than a year. I did find a relationship between the MJT and the Imperial Valley which is rather interesting. There are echo quakes, if that is the proper name for them. I think you folks also call them FFA's. Far field aftershock?

Also, I did find a paper by Ross Stein and the Japanese about tidal triggering.
After a year of study on the syzygy triggering process, I have found no conclusive, verifiable evidence of it except in Utah, the Adak area, and the region around the Revilla Islands of Mexico. What evidence I have is not sufficient to build a case for predictive endeavor. I will leave the syzygy book open, but the pages are running out for me.

I believe there is a larger case to be made for tectonic FFA. After Sumatra it was easy to make predictions. Since a year has passed, the aftershock sequence has developed along a well known linear reduction time path consistent with Omori decay. I am watching the Padang region for a build of stress and resultant seismicity, ala Kelly Sieh.

Closer to Home; The San Jacinto Fault is impossible to predict. But I do believe it will react in cascade with any major stike south of San Bernardino on the SAF. I find the locked portion of the SAF near Palm Springs the most troubling of all. If you look at the work of Shinji Toda, it is clearly obvious that this area has been stressed heavely by Landers and Hector Mine.

Last of All... I was born in the mountains of San Diego. Something about that area east and south of the Salton Sea bugs me....

glen