Petra...you and I are talking about 2 different things. What I said, and Don agreed, is that there is zero chance of a M9 earthquake occuring in the latitude range where it already broke. This has nothing to do with what you are talking about, precursors. Also...Kerry Sieh is not keeping secrets...give me a break. He has published what he knows, and it was published before the Dec 26 earthquake. I'm sure he knows more now than he did 2 years ago when that paper was probably written...he has a web site where he puts the latest info.

It sounded from your post that you don't fully understand the size of fault, and the amoount of slip, that is required to make a M9 quake.

On the other hand, I don't have any problem with the area of the 1833 and 1861 quakes being ripe...that is what Sieh was concerned about. If you read my post at least half way carefully, I tried to be very careful to distinguish that area, which is south of the equator, from the area that broke in Dec and March, which is north of the equator.

Don...you said "Major" when you should have said "Great"....There may be plenty of strain accumulated for a Major (I think this is M7 to 8?) quake on the right-lateral faults...and something near M7 is possible as an aftershock...for a thrust of M7 to occur would not be beyond the realm of possibility.

Chris