For Petra. Pincushion Peak Prediction
Posted by Don in Hollister on November 21, 2005 at 11:33:37:

Hi Petra. You didn’t get your Pincushion Peak quake, but you didn’t miss it by very much either. It was 5 miles outside your window on location and 3 days late and a tad bit below your minimum.

The last quake larger then M=4.3 was in Oct. 2004. The last quake of M=4.0 and larger was in Dec. 2004.

In regards to location you were off 1 second on the count. In as much that you have never heard a M=4 or greater quake in that area before the magnitude was a good guess.

There is only one unnamed fault in the area of the quake, but there are a lot of cinder cones in the area. The “first motion mechanism” shows the quake to be pure strike-slip. Past “moment tensor solutions” in the general area have been strike-slip so the movement appears to be consistent. The “moment tensor solutions” for the Markleeville area further to the north are a combination of strike-slip and normal. All in all, not to shabby. Take Care…Don in creepy town

catalog=ANSS
start_time=2000/01/01,00:00:00
end_time=2005/11/21,19:00:44
minimum_magnitude=4.0
maximum_magnitude=10
event_type=E
delta=0 km to 60 km from (38.063,-118.898)
Date Time Lat Lon Depth Mag Magt Nst Gap Clo RMS SRC Event ID
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2000/01/19 11:11:02.96 38.0475 -118.7286 9.22 4.41 ML 32 0.14 NN
2000/01/20 10:04:56.11 38.0494 -118.7298 9.17 4.21 ML 46 0.18 NN
2001/02/17 22:54:19.50 38.2500 -118.2900 12.36 4.06 ML 46 0.13 NN
2003/03/08 15:35:01.71 37.5705 -118.8848 5.46 4.00 Mw 45 89 4 0.07 NC 21270208
2004/09/18 07:08:00.03 38.0030 -118.6720 7.20 4.10 Mw 64 0.00 REN 200409184024
2004/09/18 23:02:17.77 38.0108 -118.6800 7.35 5.55 Mw 48 54 10 0.08 NC 51146343
2004/09/18 23:43:41.79 38.0187 -118.6625 10.24 5.40 Mw 50 178 7 0.09 NC 51146384
2004/09/18 23:47:58.51 38.0242 -118.6485 4.30 4.10 ML 50 78 14 0.07 NC 51146385
2004/09/20 16:51:04.81 38.0277 -118.6425 4.32 4.80 Mw 49 65 7 0.08 NC 21397068
2004/10/09 03:45:48.68 37.9788 -118.6588 7.58 4.68 ML 47 67 5 0.08 NC 21405798
2004/10/20 11:35:15.35 38.0390 -118.6080 4.80 4.00 Mw 45 0.00 REN 200410204031
2004/12/23 12:37:24.02 37.9652 -118.6675 6.51 4.05 ML 7 0.12 NN
2004/12/23 12:37:24.02 37.9652 -118.6675 6.51 4.05 ML 7 0.12 NN


Follow Ups:
     ● Dear Ernie, Love, Rosa Mae - Petra  14:37:08 - 11/21/2005  (30869)  (1)
        ● Re: Dear Ernie, Love, Rosa Mae - Don in Hollister  16:40:25 - 11/21/2005  (30879)  (0)