Hello Dennis,

I have no intention of going through what Charlotte King did, that's why I want to use instruments and not people alone. The idea is to instrument the fault and determine at what frequency people hear the sounds and align the two. If one can capture the frequency, then once the sound is detected, its only a matter of observation to determine how long it takes for the quakes to arrive. The question then becomes, is it always the same? If not, is there an average and so forth. It has many possibilities.

Now as to the emergency response team efforts, if one were to warn people, the first would be these groups. The firemen need to get the engines out of the bays along with the ambulances. The hospitals need to be put on alert and get ready for triage units. But even one hour or two for them and for us, could make a world of difference. Think of it this way. Often these workers don't live in the city where they work, so if they were called in and were at the ready, they could be sure to arrive and not get stuck somewhere along the way. That's one of the benefits of early warnings. Last year, I sat down with our City Firechief and discussed our citywide disaster plan and he is all for early warnings.

As to protocols, as Andrew Michael tells me, its in this order: Date, Place, Magnitude, Percentage of chance against random odds, and why the individual believes this will occur.

But theres a little more they expect of anyone who attempts this and Jim Berkland has told his story many times as to how they are not in acceptance of his Loma Prieta forecast, even though it was in the newspapers prior and he hit it right on the nose.

However, I can't say I fault them for this. If someone has a proven method and a scientist is willing to work with that person or group and present a paper explaining the theory or hypothesis, then the support will be there anyway. But what we have to know is that they have limitations regarding what the government allows them to do. Government employees are not allowed to predict earthquakes.

In the case of Parkfield, the USGS and UC Berkeley present a reason an alert should be issued to the State of California and the State determines if it should go public, not the USGS. But its called an Alert, not an earthquake prediction. Mind you the percentage of chance for a Level A Alert is only 37%. This bothers me greatly. At nearing 20 years and about a billion dollars, this is the best we can expect, but their expectations for others is much higher.

As to the possibility of this occuring in our lifetimes, I like to take a positive stance. If we can put men on the Moon and bring them home, fly the Space Shuttle just like an airplane and a billion other things even five years ago that seemed impossible, then this should be in the realm of things achievable. Everyone knows that when rocks break, they emit an electrical discharge, which is what I believe I hear in advance of an earthquake. So why should it be such a mystery? Its just a matter of doing it.

I don't believe that anything is totally impossible, with few exceptions. You can't be a President if you are poor and have no people skills. You can't believe anything unless you are open to new concepts and your mind is willing to adapt to those thought patterns. I have to say, though I don't intend it to be demeaning, but quite a number of scientists I have met are like a train going down a particular track and it has no stops and can't make any new junctures because they don't want to. They want to show up, do a certain thing and never look left or right in the process. But there are people like that everywhere, not just in science.

Pat