Hi All. For years now USGS has been painting a grim picture of the probability of a major quake in the Bay Area. For years now the people just don’t seem to understand that the quake has already occurred. We are just waiting for the affects to be felt at the surface. The “P” wave, the “S” wave, the “L” and “R” waves are radiating out from the focal point of the quake. It is just a matter of time before they reach the surface. Most people will say the quake struck without warning. Not true. The warnings are there, but most people aren’t listening, or are not paying attention.

Mother Nature indulged Northern Californians for most of the 20th century. No devastating quakes hit the Bay Area between 1906 and 1989. However, that might have been an anomalously calm epoch, seismically speaking -- an epoch that future generations may recall with envy.

By contrast, three quakes of M=6.5 or greater struck the Bay Area in the 30-year period between 1838 and 1868. In the 151-year period encompassing 1838 to 1989, five quakes of M=6.5 or higher -- on average, 1 every 30 years -- have jolted the region (in 1838, 1865, 1868, 1906 and 1989).

In addition, recent research by two top quake experts showed that between 1680 and 1776, a 96-year period, severe quakes struck six of the seven major earthquake fault systems in the Bay Area.

The 1989 Loma Prieta quake was a wake up call, but unfortunately most people have gone back to sleep, or never got the message. The 1906 placed the Bay Area in a “stress shadow” and were now coming out of that shadow. Indeed we may be completely out of the shadow and it is only a matter of time before the next major quake strikes the Bay Area. It could occur next week, next month, next year, or the next 2 minutes. It will occur, it has to occur simply because they have occurred in the past.

To those Bay Area residents who are in denial about the inevitability of another big quake, or who assume a big quake strikes only once in a lifetime, or who think scientists will like scientists in Hollywood movies issue an alert a few hours before the quake. It isn’t going to happen, no way, forget it.

The quake has already occurred. Were just waiting for the mechanics of it to reach the surface. Take Care…Don in creepy town

http://www.abag.ca.gov/bayarea/eqmaps/pickcity.html

• Bay Area Hazard Map