Re: Petra nailed it
Posted by chris in suburbia on September 28, 2004 at 10:43:33:

Was a M5.9, followed by 5.0 aftershock and a couple of high M4s.
Might want to keep an eye on the next segment to the SE...I forget what that is called.....I better qualify that: don't take me too seriously on that. I did hear a talk by a seismologist, and I think there was a paper, that the 2 segments, Parkfield and the next one to the SE, might fail together. But, the fact that they did not fail together makes it less likely that the 2nd will go now. But, the shear stress has probably been increased on the next segment to the SE....so the time of the next earthquake there has been advanced. But, if the next segment is not ready for 100 years and this has been advanced by 5 years, you do not get a quake.

I think the area NW of Parkfield is the creeping segment and that insulates areas to the NW.....elastic strain and stress do not build up as much...and it is considered that you can not have a high magnitude quake on that segment.

Too bad I have not had a chance to read the links that Don, Canie, etc have made for me....on probabilities for segments...I have a lot of work to do today but will take a quick look.
Chris


Follow Ups:
     ● Tim also - chris in suburbia  11:08:58 - 9/28/2004  (23086)  (4)
        ● too busy this week to read carefully - John Vidale  22:21:21 - 9/30/2004  (23154)  (1)
           ● Re: too busy this week to read carefully - chris in suburbia  05:05:36 - 10/1/2004  (23158)  (1)
              ● quick reaction - John Vidale  08:03:42 - 10/2/2004  (23170)  (2)
                 ● Re: quick reaction - Tim   12:39:50 - 10/2/2004  (23174)  (1)
                    ● quite a coincidence - John Vidale  23:20:45 - 10/2/2004  (23180)  (0)
                 ● Re: quick reaction - Question for John - Canie  09:24:22 - 10/2/2004  (23171)  (1)
                    ● haven't heard - John Vidale  23:25:24 - 10/2/2004  (23181)  (0)
        ● Re: Tim also - Cathryn  18:30:57 - 9/28/2004  (23101)  (0)
        ● Re: Tim also - Tim   14:30:07 - 9/28/2004  (23093)  (2)
           ● Re: Tim also - Canie  19:34:22 - 9/28/2004  (23106)  (0)
           ● Re: Tim also - Don in Hollister  14:46:24 - 9/28/2004  (23094)  (1)
              ● Re: Tim also - chris in suburbia  15:47:01 - 9/28/2004  (23095)  (1)
                 ● Re: Tim also - Cathryn  18:15:58 - 9/28/2004  (23100)  (0)
        ● Re: Tim also - Roger Hunter  11:36:51 - 9/28/2004  (23088)  (0)
     ● Re: Petra nailed it - Michael Tolchard  10:46:28 - 9/28/2004  (23080)  (1)
        ● Re: Petra nailed it - Michael Tolchard  10:48:04 - 9/28/2004  (23081)  (1)
           ● on San Andreas - chris in suburbia  10:53:15 - 9/28/2004  (23083)  (1)
              ● Cholame segment - chris in suburbia  11:24:17 - 9/28/2004  (23087)  (1)
                 ● Re: Cholame segment--Links - Don in Hollister  11:58:51 - 9/28/2004  (23089)  (0)