I checked the links that people put up, and checked the SCEC web page, but I do not see anything on the probability of a San Andreas segment being ruptured in a 30 year period. I am told by C.N. that the original report was about 1988. But, I'm pretty sure I've seen a later version. I've seen the Bay area reports...that is not what I want.

But, OK, the San Andreas fault segment to the southeast of Parkfield is the Cholame segment. If someone can find the right report, there will be a probable magnitude for that segment...probably about a M7. That segment is sparsely populated also.
OK, I better go back to looking at some Antarctica data...
Chris