Magnitude: 3.5-5.0
From: 10/19/04 - To: 10/27/04
Location: Alameda, California
Lat: 37.764N - Long: 122.243W - Range: 64Km

Hi All. Having laid in a fresh supply of onions and garlic for my sandwiches I think it’s time for another quake forecast for the Bay Area. Not having my usual Corona Beer for a chaser I’m not sure as to how this is going to work out.

This is for the month of October and the days between 10/19 and the 10/27 with the most probable date of the 10/22. As some of you may remember I did this once before with negative results. We got the increase in the number of quakes, but not the large quake. Not even close.

The area for the quake is 37.764N/122.243W. This is about 2 miles south of Alameda and will be associated with the southern segment of the Hayward Fault. There are 3 other locations, but this one appears to be the most probable. The radius for this is 40 miles with most of the other locations north of the selected point. There are 2 others, but they didn’t meet the minimum criteria.

The magnitude of the quake (s) is between M>3.5 and M>5.0, but could be larger. By the way. The odds of a large quake occurring at any given time are about 1 in 15,000 so the odds of a large quake occurring aren’t very good. Take Care…Don in creepy town