Hi Canie,

Now that you have determined it was the Sierra Madre Fault, did you have a look at the instrumentation for the area and see if there were any changes of late? Or have you run a catalog of recent events? Its much like a puzzle, if you have only so many pieces, then you'll want to find the rest, so you can see the whole picture. In the scheme of EQ prediction, if you are given so many elements, then you'll want to confirm with the observation of the others, what one might expect the outcome to be and the mechanisms that bring that event to fruition.

Though Parkfield is inactive most of the time these days, one day it won't be anymore. But before the next five or so, most likely it can be seen ahead of time. Most of the time it starts with clustering events, then little by little the rest falls in, so not unlike one who dreams of these events beforehand, there are subtle clues that something is changing. So why not take advantage of those instrumented area's and watch an earthquake in the developmental stages.

Earthquakes not unlike myocardial infarction do not arrive suddenly. There are little things that happen before. Just like when one suffers from heart failure, the individual suffers some precursory phenomena that eventually leads to the heart attack. People often ignore those subtle clues and in earthquakes, the symptoms may well be present, but only those who care to see ahead of time, who watch daily and notice those little warnings, will be the one's who "know" an earthquake is about to be delivered.

One cannot watch everything, but in teams or groups working in specific areas, they will have a much better ability to find the solutions.

Canie, you, not unlike me are a very busy woman, so if you need a hand in researching, I would well imagine the volunteers you need are right here, willing and able to lend a hand. Just ask.

Pat