As most of you know, I've spent a few quality hours with scientists from the U.S.G.S. as well as from around the world, but most of them have kept a tight lid on their thoughts about future earthquakes. However, the TV show which was produced by KRON-4-TV from San Francisco last night left nothing to the imagination. The bottom line is very clear at the end. When Science Editor, Brian Hackney said this: "There is a 2 out of 3 chance of a major quake striking in the San Francisco Bay Area in the next 30 years. Two out of three isn't bad, except when it comes to earthquakes."

This production took a trip by air and land to follow various faults in the San Francisco Bay Area and emphasis was heavy on the Hayward Fault. The area where the fault runs, includes many cities including Hayward, Oakland, Berkeley and finally out into the bay. Millions of people live right on top of it. U.C. Berkeley does too and it is a priority area that scientists are keeping a close eye on. In particular the northern segment of the fault. In the program they said it had returned to a more robust pattern, though personally, I don't see it.

James J. Lienkaemer of the USGS discussed historical evidence which was gathered from trenching, the northern segment of the Hayward Fault. In 1868 there were a number of 7.0 or larger quakes in the area and the evidence gathered provides a time line where on average 7.0 earthquakes occur approximately every 130 years, +/- 40 years. In particular around 1868 there were several 7.0 quakes and they expect not just one large quake in the future. So from 1868 to 1998 our 130 years came and went without a 7.0. Thus, any day now we can have a 6.5 or better. Alan Lindh added a few words and said pretty much the same. We've been there before and we'll go there again.

David Schwartz well known for his work on the Rodgers Creek Fault also let it be known this fault has its problems and it is overdue as well. Schwartz is the only scientist who has done any serious study of the Rodgers Creek Fault and if you ask anyone a question about it, his name is the first to come up.

Hollister and Gilroy both had their parts in this story and interestingly enough, Brian Hackneys Grandmother lives in Hollister. They included a shot of Duanne Park and a curb on 6th street which clearly show fault movement. However, the fastest moving in fault in the Bay Area is the Calavaras Fault which has moved 17 inches since 1972.

During the presentation one item seemed to stand out more than others and that was that they expect a six foot offset if the San Gregario Fault, Hayward Fault, Calavaras Fault or the Rodgers Creek faults have a 6.5 or greater earthquake. They provided numerous demonstrations on what a six foot offset would look like.

I truly enjoyed this program because of the visual demonstrations and the contributions from everyone involved were excellent. However, it does paint a sobering picture of the future. Every large fault in the San Francisco Bay Area can take that moderate to large leap at any time.

I sent a nice thank you e-mail to KRON and said a few words about PSA's. A little seed here and there never hurts. It is indeed time to get ready. Today...not next year.

Petra

• The Seismic Safety Zone