Our scientific and governmental systems are broken
Posted by EQF on April 29, 2004 at 20:36:15:

Shan, I have repeatedly proposed the following in my notes posted to this bulletin board. And I personally strongly believe that these opinions are accurate.

The problem with people not taking any interest in your technology has little to do with your forecasting method or its importance but rather with the fact that we are dealing with global scientific and governmental systems which are broken.

Earthquakes represent such serious natural disasters that there should be organized national and international scientific and governmental groups which are constantly watching to see if anyone anywhere is making any progress with forecasting them. But as far as I have been able to determine no such organized groups exist anywhere. And the small informal one which I myself am in which is interested in that subject matter is not a really an organized group.

Most people regard the subject of forecasting earthquakes as being so technically complex and time consuming that they simply ignore it and wait for someone else to make some progress. And all of the groups which I myself know about which are actively trying to develop earthquake forecasting procedures are totally focused on their own methodology. They are not looking around to see if any other researchers are making progress with some other method. And even worse, quite often they will attack one another in the hopes of eliminating possible competitors for research grants and public recognition etc. Unfortunately, such dangerously irresponsible behavior is nothing new to either science or to governments and politics etc.

The system is broken. And while it is important to complain about it being broken, if you want to see any progress made then you have to recognize the fact that it is broken and that it is not going to get fixed any time soon. And you have to try to determine how you can get something done in spite of the fact that you are dealing with a broken system.

If you go back through my past notes you will find quite a few where I complained vehemently that the system was broken and that because of that lives were being unnecessarily lost. But at the same time that I have been complaining about that I have also been moving my own earthquake forecasting technology forward while at the same time trying to help other people get their procedures developed. For one example, I spent a considerable amount of time helping prepare that evaluation report which discusses your method.

By continuously trying to move my own procedure forward in spite of the many obstacles in the way the technology has now developed to the point where I believe that it has the potential to be able to function effectively for people around the world even though our national and international scientific and governmental systems in which it will have to operate are broken.

As I have proposed in the past, people who are presently trying to forecast earthquakes are largely on their own with regard to getting their technologies developed and accepted.


Follow Ups:
     ● I will meet you at Mars......  - R.Shanmugasundaram  11:28:25 - 4/30/2004  (21654)  (0)