Hi Roger and all,

I have addressed this issue repeatedly. And at least for the people posting notes in response to mine it does not appear to be sinking in. So the following information could be regarded as being for other board visitors who are actually interested in trying to understand what is taking place. And that apparently includes very few scientists.

Roger, once again, your argument does not apply in any way to my note. I have stated this again and again. Unless I state otherwise, and that would be very rare indeed, my warnings are only, and I mean ONLY for HIGHLY DESTRUCTIVE earthquakes.

They are NOT for 8.0 or 7 or 6 or 5 magnitude earthquakes which occur in remote areas and do no damage.

They CAN BE for 5 or 6 or 7 or 8 magnitude earthquakes which occur near cities. And the magnitude is not important to the warnings because even a low magnitude earthquake can occur directly beneath a city and do a tremendous amount of damage.

So, if you remove all of the harmless and only moderately destructive earthquakes from the list of ones which occur every year then you have a list which contains perhaps only 3 earthquakes each year. Those are the ones I am trying to warn people about. And I feel that I am doing an excellent job of telling when warning signals are being generated which are telling us that a highly destructive earthquake is getting ready to occur. Check for yourself. Try to find any of my recent warnings which was not followed by a highly destructive earthquake.

How can those warning signals be selective for highly destructive earthquakes like that?

This is another question which I have repeatedly tried to answer.

The most logical technical answer for that question that I have been able to formulate is that I am working with low frequency radio wave type warning signals. You know that if you have a broadcast signal type television which has no antenna then you will have a poor quality picture. If you attach an antenna then the antenna can selectively link the television with radio waves which have a certain frequency and you start receiving clear signals and pictures.

The maze of electrical power cables and metal water pipes surrounding cities might be acting as antennas for those low frequency radio waves. So if the earthquake is going to occur out in some remote area then no matter how powerful it is there will be no wires and pipes to form an antenna for those signals. And I do not detect anything.

I am not yet certain what is actually happening. But I am gradually collecting information on this and formed another important theory regarding it just today. I know of only two other groups which are doing research in this area. One is a very large group in China. The other is a small group here in the U.S. And I have been trying to get everyone together so that we can compare notes regarding these signals.

One of the not surprising things which the Chinese researchers have apparently learned is that these signals can be highly directional. If you have detectors stationed equal distances around a fault zone then some of them will detect warning signals and others will not. That is one reason not every approaching earthquake is detected by every monitor. As I have repeatedly stated, this subject matter can be technically complex like that.

It is truly sad, but I simply do not have enough free time to spend trying to determine exactly where and when an expected earthquake is going to occur even if I think that it is likely to be quite destructive. I have to spend most of the available time on advancing the technology. For one example, my present computer programs are simply too slow. And I am trying to upgrade to the Perl language which is much faster and far more powerful. But to convert just the first of my important computer programs from Basic to Perl is going to probably take me another 40 hours of exhausting work. And I cannot simply drop everything and get that much time free.

I am also communicating extensively with other researchers around the world and am circulating international earthquake warnings. And both of those things take tremendous amounts of time.

So why bother posting any warning notes here if there is not enough time to track down the time and location of the expected earthquake?

One reason is to let other earthquake forecasters know that one could be on the way. And with that latest note I provided Shan and any other people reading these notes with that information. My first note stated exactly when I detected that warning signal.

That is important information. On November 7, 2003 I detected a warning signal which pointed to almost exactly where that deadly December 22 earthquake might occur in California. And on that same day that one forecaster who monitors earthquake clouds detected one which was also quite close to that California location. I do circulate e-mail warnings to forecasters around the world. But it is also important to say something in bulletin boards such as this one in an effort to reach other people and to let them comment on a warning.

This is not presently a very effective system. But because of the irresponsible conduct of the people who should be doing this type of work, our government officials and scientist, and because of the lack of interest by the general public, at the moment this is the only available option. I myself do not have a giant organization or know of any which is presently interested in collecting and evaluating earthquake warning data.

When California had that recall election last year I don't believe that any of the candidates was even asked once what he or she was going to do to improve the earthquake forecasting picture even though this is a vitally important subject for people living in that state. Earthquakes are not a problem where I live. And if people who are living directly on top of earthquake fault zones like that care so little about the subject matter that they are unwilling to lift a finger to save themselves then what can I do as an independent researcher? I can't force people to save themselves.

There really should be and probably would be widespread interest in this subject matter. But I feel that there is a very effective propaganda machine operating within government circles and within the scientific community which is specifically designed to suppress that interest. And in part because of that the only option left is to try to work around that interference. It is slow work. But progress is gradually being made.

These are personal opinions.