I heard a talk by Lynn Sykes at Lamont today that would be of interest to some of you-esp. Don. Lynn said that I could post as much of this as what was in his AGU abstract (title and reference below, can search for it at www.agu.org). It is a bit harder to know what is important about this in the abstract than in the talk-so, -large earthquakes in some areas may be more predictable on the decades-scale than the USGS has supposed, and the risk for earthquakes in the next 30 years is higher on 2 Bay-area faults than was stated in the 2003 USGS report. He also talked about Alaska, Cascadia, and Honshu (Nankai)-also, Turkey. Hmmm.....the specifics are what is interesting, but the specifics are not in the abstract....Chris

Cite abstracts as Eos Trans. AGU, 84(46),
Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract xxxxx-xx, 2003
Your query was:
sykes

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HR: 13:40h
AN: NG32A-01 INVITED
TI: Long-Term Prediction of Large Earthquakes: When Does Quasi-Periodic Behavior Occur?
AU: * Sykes, L R
EM: sykes@ldeo.columbia.edu