Hi John. Interesting. Here is another article covering the prediction of the Hokkaido quake. Take Care…Don in creepy town

Japanese scientists predicted big quake on island
USGS calls forecast 'bull's-eye' after 8.0 Hokkaido temblor
Keay Davidson, Chronicle Science Writer
Friday, September 26, 2003
©2004 San Francisco Chronicle | Feedback | FAQ

Just six months ago, Japanese scientists forecast the huge earthquake that hit Japan Thursday.

Using techniques broadly similar to those used by U.S. scientists to anticipate future quakes in the Bay Area, the Japanese scientists estimated a 60 percent probability of an 8.1 magnitude quake in the vicinity of Japan's Tokachi Plain on the island of Hokkaido over the next 30 years.

A quake measuring 8.0 magnitude hit Thursday within the boundaries of the designated region, a 100-by-150-mile area that the scientists called "Region B, " just offshore from the Tokachi Plain.

"This is the bull's-eye," said Ross Stein, a geophysicist at the U.S. Geological Survey office in Menlo Park. "This is a direct hit -- I would say that without any qualification. I think we need to say that this looks like a very successful forecast."

The forecast was made in March by the Japanese government's Earthquake Research Promotion Committee. The government formed the committee after the disastrous 1995 earthquake in Kobe, Japan, partly to revamp that nation's long- standing effort to forecast and plan for future quakes.

• Hokkaido Quake