Hi John. In my estimation Parkfield is a good idea, just poor timing. The 22-year intervals for M>6.0 quakes in the area are based on 5 past quakes. This isn’t a very good average as it’s based on a very small occurrence.

The Bay Area is my chief concern in that I live a little more then 90 miles south of it. A major quake will have an affect on the area I live in. To what degree depends on the location that it occurs and the magnitude.

Just about everyone agrees that the Rodgers Creek Fault is the number one fault for the next major quake. That doesn’t mean that the next major quake will occur there only that the odds are in favor of it being the fault that will have the quake. Over a period of a couple of years I have learned from various seismologist that one of the first indication would most likely be an increase in the number of small quakes along the southern segment (Santa Rosa to San Pablo Bay) with some M>4.0+ to M>5.0+ quakes east of the fault. I think the M>4.0 5.0 quakes may be something similar to what was seen prior to the Loma Prieta quake. There have been a number of quakes in the North Bay in the area of Cloverdale, Healdsburg, Santa Rosa and Yountville, but I have no idea as to how they fit into the equation, as these quakes don’t appear to be associated with the Rodgers Creek Fault with the exception of the quake near Santa Rosa.

The prediction of future quakes is the key here. You take them one at a time. In order to predict large quakes you have to have large quakes to study. The thing to keep in mind is that what is seen before one quake may not be seen at another. I hope I can stick around long enough to see the day when a quake can be predicted. Kind of like an artillery spotter. You zero in on the target one shot at a time. Take Care…Don in creepy town